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US importers are currently absorbing the costs of increased tariffs on Chinese goods, with little price relief from exporters. Despite significant tariff hikes, import prices have only decreased slightly, indicating that importers are shouldering the burden while hoping for future negotiations to lower tariffs.
Oil prices fell as tensions within the Opec+ alliance grew, with Kazakhstan prioritizing national interests over collective production goals. The US stock market showed mixed signals, with the Dow Jones expected to decline amid concerns over tariffs and interest rates, while Alphabet's quarterly report boosted investor confidence. The Nasdaq 100 also retreated slightly after a recent recovery.
The options market reflects ongoing skepticism about the US dollar, despite recent reassurances from President Trump regarding tariffs and Fed Chair Powell. Elevated EUR/USD risk reversals and implied volatility indicate a shift in market sentiment, with rising risks for the dollar amid political chaos in the US. This contrasts with past trends where the dollar was seen as a safe haven during crises, highlighting a significant change in investor confidence.
Britain faces escalating fiscal challenges, with a budget deficit significantly wider than anticipated and growth indicators deteriorating. Public sector pay increases and a weak real economy are contributing to higher net borrowing, raising concerns about the pound's stability amid potential policy loosening by the Bank of England.
Copper prices are showing signs of recovery, bolstered by hopes of a resolution to the US-China tariff dispute, which could alleviate economic strain. However, the global copper market remains well supplied, with a surplus of 150,000 tons reported in early 2023, despite ongoing concerns about potential shortages. Demand and metal processing have remained stable, but future developments, particularly related to tariffs, could impact the market significantly.
OPEC has introduced a compensation plan to address previous overproduction, involving cuts of 4.57 million barrels per day from eight countries until mid-2026. Iraq and Kazakhstan will contribute significantly, while the overall increase in supply from May is expected to be limited to just 30 thousand barrels per day due to compensatory cuts. Without further production increases, OPEC+ output may even decline slightly in June.
Brent oil prices surged past $68 per barrel, driven by easing tariff tensions and new US sanctions on Iran, including a shipping network linked to Iranian oil transport. Additionally, a significant drop in US crude oil inventories reported by the API further fueled the price increase. However, analysts caution that substantial upward potential may be limited due to concerns over looming oversupply.
Swiss gold exports in the first quarter showed a stark contrast, with shipments to the US soaring to nearly 450 tons, accounting for 77% of total exports. In contrast, exports to China and Hong Kong plummeted by 95% to 13.4 tons, while India saw an 87% decline to 7.4 tons, reflecting weakened demand in Asia amid rising gold prices.
Silver demand is projected to decline slightly to 1.15 billion ounces this year, driven by stagnation in industrial applications and reduced interest in jewelry and silverware. Despite a modest increase in supply, the supply deficit is expected to narrow to 118 million ounces, marking the smallest deficit in four years.
Silver prices continue to lag behind the soaring gold market, with silver currently 4% below its five-month high and only a 13% increase this year compared to gold's 30% rise. The gold/silver ratio has surged above 100, indicating silver's relative cheapness. Despite this, silver's performance is better than that of crude oil, copper, US equities, and bonds.
Commerzbank AG
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The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
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